Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution of Stance & Closed Issues
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Document and Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018
All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
